McKinsey & Company Project Green Job Growth
Jun/090
In late 2008 McKinsey and Company published a story entitled “Not sky-high“. This article set out goals and projections for how the world can “avoid the potential nightmares of global warming, such as mass migrations from flooded cities and starvation due to drought”. Scientific consensus is that carbon emissions must be reduced to at least 50% below 1990 levels by 2050 in order to avoid this fate and that means a shift in technology and jobs akin to the industrial revolution. This shift will drastically change today’s industrial landscape and create a whole new category of green collar jobs in renewable energy sectors such as wind, solar, geothermal and biofuel.
The article goes on to state that McKinsey & Company has “conducted a detailed bottom-up analysis of…what a clean-energy revolution would entail and how much it would cost…overall, the shift to a low-carbon economy would require new global capital investment averaging $570 billion per year between 2010 and 2030…many of these “costs” are actually long-term investments—new clean power and industry infrastructure—that have the potential to spur economic growth and create jobs, just as the “costs” of building the Internet ultimately led to new sources of growth.”
Put a different way, McKinsey & Company suggest that the world’s economies will have to increase their carbon productivity (how much energy or goods/services are produced vs. how much carbon is sent into the atmosphere) by ten fold in the next forty years. That’s a high increase but it is achievable; over the course of the Industrial Revolution labor productivity increased by 10x but it took over 120 years. The challenge we are facing today must be met in less than half that time but today’s advanced technologies are a huge enabler and many experts agree that the green revolution has really been going on for the past 50 years. McKinsey & Company estimate that 70% of the technology needed to meet our 2050 goal is already available or will become available by 2020. Germany, for example, gets 12% of its energy from solar, wind or geothermal sources that leverage advanced photovoltaic and nanotechnology based devices that are currently available. Today, the “Silicon Valley” area of Northern California, best known for being the birthplace of Google, HP, and Stanford University, is experiencing high growth as new companies such as Nanosolar, Solaria, and Tesla Motors all contribute advances in clean technologies like those being used in Germany. The clean technology front has grown out of many of the same technologies and advances that helped create computers and a similar growth curve is anticipated by many experts investing in the industry.
Aside from advances in technology and energy production, new carbon markets will emerge and investments will be made in preserving the rainforests of the world (which act as giant Carbon sinks, reducing the impact of CO2). Green Job Feed is one of many companies that has invested in CO2 offset to help mitigate the impact of doing business on the environment. The “gray costs” of running servers and office utilities are paid through the investment we make in planting new trees and erecting solar and wind power stations through Carbonfund.org. Carbonfund.org is a great example of a green company that is not directly working on clean technology, instead they are helping to offset some of today’s harmful technologies until tomorrow’s solutions arrive.
There are really two alternative paths that can be taken as 2050 approaches and the world’s systems are strained under population growth and diminishing resources. Consume less or create more efficient ways of living. McKinsey & Company provides the following anecdote for consuming less: “the average citizen of a developed country emits 27 to 63 kilograms of carbon equivalents per day depending on where he or she lives. In order to minimize climate damage, that number needs to come down to less than 6 kilograms per day. To live on such a budget at today’s levels of carbon productivity, one would be forced to choose between taking a 40 kilometer car ride (~25 miles), using air conditioning for the day, purchasing two new T-shirts (without driving to a shop to buy them), or eating two meals that included meat. In short, without a major boost in carbon productivity, stabilizing the climate would require a painful change in lifestyles in the developed world and the loss of hope for greater prosperity in the developing world.”
The clear pathway into a sustainable future is really a mixture of both consuming less and changing the way companies work along with a refocus on conserving natural resources and world forrests. This all means that more and more companies will be exploring renewable energy and sustainable production. Traditional companies will need in house experts and consultants to help them optimize their products as new standards emerge and that means more green jobs.
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